Elliot waves show 45.3K before testing 40K
BTC started the week at 46,922, and at the current price of 43,645, loses about 7%, so far. These waves up and down are directly related to the geopolitical tensions and FED decisions, as market participants faced with over hawkish tone of FED minutes of the March meeting and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine that shows that still, Russia is after something bigger in Eastern Ukraine.
Inflation in the United States increasing much faster towards 8% and it is not a good signal for markets, that's why we can see such a hawkish tone in the meeting minutes. In line with these minutes, FOMC members also were so aggressive in their speeches during the week. Most FOMC members believe that FED must go faster towards tightening policies with a 50pb rate hike. This policy will put the stock market under pressure, and FED dealing with inflation can increase the demands for Cryptocurrencies, which is not going to be for a long time.
On the other hand, we can see digital assets getting more popular every day around the globe, with CBDC. Even US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that a digital dollar could become a "trusted money comparable to physical cash." These approaches from officials can help the positive sentiment, but it does not always mean a bullish trend in the chart.
We should not forget that governments can use it against sanctions. Especially now, while the United States and other western countries trying to set new sanctions against Russia, concerns about the effectiveness of these sanctions in case they use the cryptocurrencies to bypass them are increasing.
With these all, while in the long-term the BTC still seems positive, in the short-term, it can still be under pressure and see levels under 40K, before any long-term movement.
From the technical point of view, as you can see in the below Daily chart, we are entering the "B" wave of Elliot waves, which can go towards 45.3K, and then should start the "C" wave, which can continue at least towards 40K. After 40K, the new setting and trend will take a place, which can be the continuing bearish trend or a strong return, and we will watch the charts once again after that.