USD/RUB Back under 100, towards 90!

Author: Trade Pro Skills

Friday, 25 March 2022 Number of words: 404 Study time: 3 Minutes Views: 85


Russia reversed Ruble selling for now! 

Market analyst – IFC Markets

Russian Ruble has found more support after a few changes in the country's energy export policy. On Monday we had some reports that later in the week have been confirmed that Russia decided to sell the Oil and Gas just in Russian Ruble to the countries where they have been imposed sanctions on Russia. Also, they added that Friendly countries with Russia can buy Oil and Gas in their currencies. 

This policy can add the demand for Russian Ruble, as energy buyers will need to buy the ruble and make business with the Russian Central bank. Therefore, western SWIFT sanctions will not work and financial sectors in Russia will be supported. 

On the other hand, countries like China, India, and Turkey, still refuse to condemn Russia and even increase their business levels by buying more commodities and energy. 

After the Russian attack on Ukraine, the currency rate fell sharply more than 60% to touch a historical low against the US dollar above 121. Right after that, the Russian central bank increased the banking rates to 20% and closed the Russian stock markets to stop large capital outflows.

This week, Moscow Stock Exchange opened slowly, and with changes in the energy selling policies, now, we can see that Ruble getting more support.  

From the technical point of view, in the H1 and H4 charts, RSI moves under 20 and 30, respectively, which is the oversold signal. However, it is in a clear downtrend, therefore, being the oversold area means more support from bears. USD RUB has strong psychological support at 90, and under that, 50& 20 DMA respectively at 87 and 80 are the next supports. However, the market volume is significantly low, and it cannot support the current downtrend. Currently, it is about 93-95, which is still more than 20% higher than the levels that were trading before the start of the war. With current tensions and increasing new sanctions, it is unlikely to see the USD/RUB under 90. However, breaching under 90 psychologically supports the bears to see lower levels. 

  USD/RUB Back under 100, towards 90!   

And if we draw the Fibonacci, we can see that today's low at 92.55 is 61.8% of its Fibo. For any downtrend also, first of all, we need to see the daily candle close under this level. On the flip side, breathing above 50% of Fibo levels at 97.75 can open the doors for higher levels around 103 and then 110. 

USD/RUB Back under 100, towards 90! 
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