Tesla Earnings Preview – Q2 2021

Rally goes on?

By: Ahura chalki

Market analyst – IFC Markets

Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) reports earnings on Monday, July 26, after market close. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Jun 2021. “According to Zacks Investment Research, based on six analysts’ forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the Quarter is $0.52. The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was $0.1.”

Tesla’s GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) earnings estimates are $0.53 per share. And according to the poll by “FactSet” from 39 Wall Street analysts, EPS expectation is $0.39. While at the other point of view, the fund managers and company executives are more optimistic with $1.02 EPS. 

Just for review, the first Quarter results at April 25 reported EPS was $0.93 and beat the $0.79 estimates. Company revenue also at $10/39B was more than analysts estimate of $9.89B, 73.6% more than same Quarter of 2020. 

And over the last year, Tesla had $0.64 EPS. Currently, it has a PE (price-to-earnings) ratio of 648.57 (Finviz). We should not forget that TSLA stock has nearly doubled while the S&P 500 posted an increase of about 33%. 

What to focus on in the report?

For car factories, one of the essential parts of the reports is the delivery numbers. In the first Q, Tesla reported 184,800 vehicles, about 2.2% and 109% increase quarterly and yearly. This report was accepted as positive as the factory was shut down because of some parts shortages.

If we go to more details, in the First Quarter, both Model 3 and Y deliveries have grown by nearly 140% yearly base to 182,780 units, and it was primarily thanks to solid sales in the Chinese market. At the same period, for models S and X, sales were steady at 2,020 units. 

For the Second Quarter, we have to follow up the model 3, Y, Y SUV (which was started producing during the second quarter). For models S and X, refreshed versions of both vehicles are producing now, and we have to check these numbers for now. 

For now, and especially with withdrawing the limits and restrictions, we can expect an increase in its factories, especially in its new factories in Texas and Berlin. 

We have to follow these numbers and see how successful they were in their claim when they claimed that “it expects to grow deliveries at a CAGR of 50% a year over a multi-year horizon.”

Tesla Earnings Preview

From the technical point of view, it has strong support at $625, where we can see the double bottom pattern. $657 is the pivot point, and crossing over that, R1 will open the door for the area between the 671 (R1) and 688 (R2). Traveling over second resistance for a longer time and the rest of 2021, we have to closely watch the $780, April 14 high. On the other hand, breaching under $625 will put the area between $539 to $546, which has been seen on 19th and 15th March, respectively.

And finally, Tesla has been ranked as 3 (Hold) by Zacks Investment Research. 

Tesla Earnings Preview


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