Gold, and market confusions 

Flat in the H4 chart

By: Ahura Chalki

Market analyst – IFC Markets

Markets are confusing between different market movers. Inflation fears, Delta variant spreading, and Stock markets are different market movers for Gold. 

The USD index, which usually moves on the opposite side with the Gold chart and price, now has a mixed correlation with Gold. These days, the USD is mainly rising because of higher market risk as its Safe-Haven demand is increasing. More expensive US Dollar, usually supposed to push the Gold price lower; however, since the reason is because of higher market risk, Gold also raising, as it is the traditional Safe-haven for financial market participants, and that’s why they are not following their standard correlations. 

On the other hand, Gold still has its correlation with Bond’s yields. As market risk increasing, bond demand increases, which means lower Yields. So, as long as Bond Yields is decreasing, it means market risk increasing, and Gold’d safe-haven demand must increase as well, which will lift the Gold price higher. 

Also, these days we have second-quarter earnings reports as well. Usually, and traditionally during the earnings reports, we have some investors that want to stay cash and wait for an opportunity; this remaining cash also mostly means moving the cash into the Gold market. 

Technically and in the H4 chart, as we can see, Gold again creating a range between 1,797 and 1,815. This new range is 10 dollars higher than the previously formed range, but with a slight difference. Now RSI is decreasing from OB area under 50, while OBV trend line also is declining, in line with the price reduction in the chart. Technically we can see a weakening in the trend strength. In the Daily chart, on the other hand, price is increasing, and we can see that price moves in a clear uptrend, above its 38.2% Fibonacci level, from the latest price reduction (1,916 to 1,750)

Gold, and market confusions


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