Gold and Markets risks

What do economic data tell us?

By: Ahura Chalki

Market analyst – IFC Markets

The week started with almost negative news. Earlier published data from Asian and European countries besides Coronavirus news had some alert. Caixin Services PMI data Earlier Monday showed China’s services sector with a 50.3 growth in June, the slowest pace in 14 months. Putting together the Manufacturing PMI number of last week, which eased in June, tells us that the world’s most giant factory’s recovery is getting slower. 

In Eurozone, IHS Markit’s final PMI in June was revised up to a new record high of 59.5.; however, the biggest economy of the Eurozone also had some difficulties in the service sector, as earlier published data says.

On the other hand, the latest wave of coronavirus caused by the Delta variant increased the risks in the market, as French Health Minister Olivier Veran also warned that a new wave of Covid-19 infections could hit at the weekend France by the end of July. 

Adding these data to the breakdown of last Friday’s NFP numbers tells us that market risk is rising in the past weeks, which must support Gold’s safe-haven demand. 

Gold technical overview

Technically we can see the uptrend signal in the market in a more extensive chart. In the H4 chart, we can see the range of 1,770 and 1,785 broken twice, once to the downside and then back above the range. In the H4 chart, the price moved above the OBV trend line, and the EMA crossing strategy also started to support the uptrend signal. RSI at 62 is also supporting the strength of the trend. In the H1 chart, price moves tangentially with 20 MA and above that. In the Daily chart, while technical indicators mostly about continuing downtrend, rising price in the chart in one with rising the OBV trend line, telling us that we have to be aware of the possibility of trend changing. 


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