NFP and massive economic data!
Market analyst – IFC Markets
By: Ahura Chalki
None farm Payroll numbers will be in the spotlight in the week ahead; however, we should not forget about other vital data like PMI from Major developed economies. Generally, this is an impressive week with massive economic data. So, let’s go to the details and see what we have to wait for in the week ahead.
UK Q1 GDP – Wednesday
The final numbers of UK GDP for Q1 2021 will be released on Wednesday. As the GDP is the economy’s most influential figure, it will spotlight by market participants. The market estimates to see a bit upward revision on its initial -1.5% increase after positive numbers that we saw in final numbers of other impressive indicators. However, even with that, it will still be in the negative area. Footsie is back above 7,000, and with expected numbers and market sentiment, it is likely to see the UK100 at the pre-pandemic level in the near future.
Manufacturing PMI data – Wednesday / Thursday
China on Wednesday, UK, and other European countries Thursday will publish their PMI numbers. In China, we are still expecting to see the numbers remain above 50 but to decline to 50.7 in June from 51 of last month. However, due to the latest rounds of reopenings in the UK and other European countries, especially in Germany and French, we are expecting upbeat numbers. In other European countries, like Italy and Spain also this improvement is more likely. Thus, estimated data supposed to help the Euro and its overall uptrend outlook.
Eurozone inflation, Wednesday
Wednesday and on the busiest day of the week, the Eurozone inflation numbers, especially after the worries in the US, will be in the spotlight. Currently, inflation in Euro is above the ECB’s 2% targets in May. But, the same as the FOMC members, Europeans also know that as a temporary period. However, the possibility that the recent price rising could turn into a longer-term trend is getting more reasonable.
OPEC+ meeting – Thursday
The 18th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (ONOMM) will be held via videoconference on Thursday, July 1, 2021, to review the global markets demand and plan for future supply. In the last meeting on June 1, they mentioned reopenings and the positive effects of vaccinations, which ended with more demand in the market. As a result, while Oil prices climbed to the highest levels since October 2018 on Friday, Brent and WTI printed the fifth growing week in a row. Therefore, with improving demand in the market, we expect a slight increase in output levels and not much changing the price in the Oil Market.
And finally, the Event of the Week, NFP – Friday
The market is waiting to see 675K new jobs and the unemployment rate to fall to 5.7%. Last week Jerome Powell and other FED members repeated over and over their commitment to the labor market by holding the dovish policies as long as it is needed. Powell said that there is still a long way to go. In the last two months, NFP missed the market estimates, and now, they are hoping the positive numbers will be seen. We still have to wait and see the new higher highs in the US stock markets with estimated numbers.
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