Weekly Outlook, 10- 14 May. 

Dow in New records and Fed comments after Weak NFP Number

By: Ahura Chalki

Market analyst – IFC Markets

After shocking NFP numbers, the week ahead includes significant inflation numbers from the US and China, while UK is supposed to release its GDP numbers. And while eyes still on India and the virus spreading there, Earnings reports will move the stock markets with Energy and entertainment shares. Let’s take a look at the most important events of the week ahead. 

Stock Markets and Earnings Report. 

While Friday’s NFP number was shocking and disappointing, stock markets continue their rallies anyway, as they realized that with weaker Job numbers, FED is not planning to hike the rate anytime soon, so this confidant helped the markets’ Bull to continue. Dow Jones and S&P 500 both printed new records; however, Nasdaq was the primary winner with almost 0.9% gain daily in intraday trading.  

For the week ahead, again, we are waiting for another fantastic weekly earnings report, mostly with Energy and entertainment companies. As you can see, familiar names this week are Occidental Petroleum, Duke Energy, Marriott International, FuboTV, Wendy’s, Alibaba Group Holding, and Walt Disney. 

Same as last week, we are still expecting that rally to continue; however, Wednesday’s US inflation number and profit-taking are teh main risks of teh week. Above the current rate, which is the second resistance, we wait for 35,065 as the third resistance. And on the flip side, returning under first support at 34,303 can change the market direction. 

 

U.K. Gross Domestic Product. 

Wednesday is the busiest calendar day. UK Is planning to realize its GDP number for the quarter first. We expect to see the positive effects of vaccination and confirm that recovery from the pandemic is underway. Despite the 1.7% expected contraction, we guess it is possible to see a sharp increase, which is supposed to help both Footsie and Sterling. BoE estimate of a 7.25% increase in 2021 will be the fastest annual growth since 1941 if it happens. 

With positive GDP numbers, our expectation for GBP is to hold the current uptrend. Friday Cable finally could pass the upper line of its range in the past two months, hoping to raise towards its third resistance at 1.4020.

 

Eyes on FED Speakers

Many investors lost their trust in FED’s assurances about the short-lived inflation rate after a significant increase in prices, especially in raw material and real estate. Since this week, most FOMC members will have speech, traders and investors will monitor them to find any signal about FED policy after such and mess in NFP numbers. Vice-Chairman Richard Clarida, Governor Lael Brainard, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, and Mary Daly, John Williams, and Rob Kaplan will have speeches this week.

While USD Index fundamentally is expected to have some correction; but technically moves in a pronounced downtrend. 91.00 is the pivot point and critical level, and trading under this level, will put the third support at 91.15 in the target. In return, above 91.50 will change the trend. 

 

Economic Calendar 

Monday is a quiet day with just Australian Retail Sales. 

Tuesday Chinese CPI, Turkish retail Sales, German and Eurozone Economic Sentiment, and EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook will be the most important news. 

On Wednesday, besides British GDP, CPI numbers in Germany and United States will focus, especially after increasing worries in the last few days about higher inflation. 

Thursday, as always, initial jobless claims and producers inflation, and both are expected to increase a bit more than the usual, given Friday’s poor jobs report.

And finally, Friday U.S retail sales expected to show a 1% rise in April. 


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