Events to Look Out for Next Week

By: Andria Pichidi

  • Retail Sales and Gross Domestic Products (CNY, GMT 02:00) – Chinese retail sales is expected to see a rally in September, at a 1.7% y/y basis. The final Q3 Chinese GDP is seen to have confirmed on a quarterly basis, at 11.3%.

Tuesday – 20 October 2020

  • RBA Meeting Minutes (AUD, GMT 00:30) – No surprises from the RBA in their last meeting are expected. The bank is waiting for the government to unveil a fiscal package to strengthen the recovery from the recession and as RBA governor Lane stressed in his statement that “the Board views addressing the high rate of unemployment as an important national priority”, and stressed that monetary policy will remain highly accommodative for as long as required.
  • PBoC Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) expected to continue to maintain flexibility in the exchange rate, stabilize market expectations, and keep the yuan basically stable at reasonable and balanced levels.
  • Building Permits (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts should rise to a 1.480 mln pace in September. Permits are expected to climb to a new 14-year high of 1.550 mln in September, after falling to 1.476 mln in August, versus a 1.536 mln 13-year high in January. All the housing measures have rebounded sharply in Q3, with 14-year highs for August new and existing home sales, a 12-year high for the MBA purchase index in September, and an all-time high for August pending home sales.

Wednesday – 21 October 2020

  • Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 06:00) – UK inflation data anticipated at 0.3% y/y in September from 0.2% in August – the lowest since 2015 – as government measures to boost demand during the pandemic, including a temporary sales tax cut for hospitality firms and subsidies for some restaurant meals kicked in.
  • Consumer Price Index and Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The Canadian retail sales are anticipated to have increased by 1% m/m in August and core at 0.5% m/m. September BoC CPI is expected higher at 0.1% m/m.

Thursday – 22 October 2020

  • Third US Presidential Debate  – The third presidential debate is still scheduled to take place as planned on October 22. Technically speaking, it will be the second presidential debate as the planned second debate was canceled after Trump, who tested positive for the new coronavirus two weeks prior. Both candidates agreed to participate in the October 22 debate, according to the CPD, and it will move forward in a similar format as the first

Friday – 23 October 2020

  • Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 06:00) – The Retail sales are seen at 3% y/y in September from 2.8% y/y last month.
  • Services and Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 08:00) – Eurozone Services, Composite PMIs revised higher in the final reading for September. The former came in at 48.0, slightly stronger than the 47.6 reported initially, but still reflecting mild contraction in a sector that more than manufacturing is feeling the tightening of virus restrictions amid the resurgence of new cases. October preliminary Service and Manufacturing PMIs are forecasted so show a slight recovery, at 50.5 and 51.9 respectively.
  • UK Service PMI (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The preliminary services PMI for October are seen to be sustained above contraction levels at  55.6 from 56.1 last month.
  • Services and Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – US Markit PMI manufacturing index was revised to 53.2 in the final September print from the 53.5 flash – better than the 51.1 a year ago. This is the best reading since January 2019.

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